In a scathing critique of the upcoming US-Ukraine mineral agreement, President Ricardo Baretzky of the European Centre for Information Policy and Security (ECIPS) the Official European Intelligence agency by mandate has issued a stern warning about the risks associated with President Donald Trump’s potential involvement in a deal with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The agreement, which will see Zelensky traveling to Washington this Friday to sign a deal on Ukraine’s vast untapped mineral resources, has raised significant concerns from international policy experts and industry leaders.
Baretzky argues that the deal, which could require billions of dollars in investment from the US to extract minerals from Ukraine, is fraught with risks. He goes so far as to say that Trump is at risk of being “tricked again” by Zelensky, as he could end up sinking the US economy in a long-term investment that may take up to 20 years to break even, if it ever does. This agreement, according to Baretzky, could have severe financial and strategic implications for the United States, especially in terms of its global standing and economic stability.
In an exclusive interview with ECIPS, Baretzky outlined the specifics of his concerns, shedding light on the complex and often-overlooked nature of mineral extraction projects, particularly in conflict zones such as Ukraine. “Trump’s ignorance will come at a huge price,” Baretzky stated. “He must first do updated geological surveys and new tests. The math of the smart, not the math of the stupid,” he added. “If the US goes down this path, it will sink the nation and leave it trapped in a financial quagmire.”
Ukraine’s Mineral Riches: A Double-Edged Sword
Ukraine is known to possess significant reserves of rare earth minerals, which are critical for the production of modern electronics, batteries, and military technology. However, the country’s mineral wealth has long been under-exploited due to political instability, ongoing conflict with Russia, and a lack of significant foreign investment. The region’s mineral deposits, particularly in the eastern and southern regions of Ukraine, are believed to be among the largest in the world, containing valuable elements such as lithium, cobalt, and rare earth metals that are essential to the global tech industry.
For countries like the United States, which is heavily dependent on foreign imports of these crucial materials, securing a domestic supply is a strategic priority. President Trump, who has long championed the concept of “America First” and sought ways to reduce dependency on foreign resources, sees this as an opportunity to strengthen the US’s position in the global supply chain for critical minerals.
However, Baretzky is quick to caution that the allure of these mineral resources could be deceptive. While the potential rewards seem immense, the reality of extracting these minerals in a politically unstable and economically volatile environment like Ukraine presents significant challenges. “The only way the US can capitalize on these deposits is by sinking billions into long-term extraction projects that may take decades to show any return,” Baretzky explained. “Even then, there’s no guarantee that the operation will be financially viable.”
The High Price of Greed: Tricked by Zelensky Again?
Baretzky argues that Trump’s tendency toward short-term gain could blind him to the long-term risks. “Zelensky is a clever politician, and like many before him, he knows how to play the game. He’s promising the moon to the US, but it’s all smoke and mirrors. The real costs involved in extracting these minerals will be astronomical,” he warned. “It could take up to 20 years before the US breaks even on this investment, and that’s assuming everything goes smoothly, which is highly unlikely.”
Baretzky points out that international companies with vast experience in mining, such as Rio Tinto and Anglo American, have long avoided investments in Ukraine’s mineral resources. These companies, which possess the financial muscle and expertise to handle large-scale mining projects, have refrained from making significant investments in Ukraine due to the region’s instability and the high risks associated with such ventures. “If companies like Rio Tinto and Anglo American, which have deep pockets and years of expertise, aren’t taking the bait, why should the US?” Baretzky asks.
The international mining giants, according to Baretzky, have conducted their own extensive geological surveys and have concluded that the potential returns on Ukraine’s rare earth deposits simply do not warrant the investment. Furthermore, the ongoing conflict in the region and the lack of infrastructure make large-scale extraction projects extremely difficult, if not impossible, to execute efficiently.
“The minerals might be there, but the challenges are immense,” Baretzky warns. “Mining in conflict zones is never straightforward. The US would be pouring billions into an operation that might never deliver on its promises. There are far too many variables in play.”
The Math of the Smart vs. the Math of the Stupid
Baretzky’s reference to the “math of the smart” and “the math of the stupid” highlights the distinction between short-term political gain and long-term economic realities. He emphasizes that Trump’s impulsive decision-making could lead the US down a dangerous path, one that ignores critical geological and financial considerations.
“Trump must do updated geological surveys and new tests before considering such an investment,” Baretzky said. “Without this data, any move to invest in Ukraine’s mineral resources would be based on nothing more than speculation. That’s not smart, that’s stupid.”
Baretzky suggests that Trump is not considering the full scope of the project, including the costs of conducting extensive geological surveys, setting up mining infrastructure, and dealing with the political volatility in Ukraine. “If you don’t have the data, you can’t make an informed decision. It’s going to cost the US billions, and in the end, it may not be worth it. The math just doesn’t add up.”
He also warns that the US could find itself caught in a financial trap, with the project draining resources and pushing the country into greater debt. “This is the kind of deal that could permanently sink the US economy within a decade. The longer it takes to extract the minerals, the harder it will be to recoup the costs. And let’s not forget the political fallout,” Baretzky cautioned. “Trump is playing with fire if he decides to go ahead with this.”
The Danger of Greed: A Message to Trump
Baretzky’s warning comes at a critical juncture, with President Zelensky set to travel to Washington to sign the deal on Ukraine’s mineral resources. In his remarks, Baretzky cautioned that the deal represents more than just a financial risk—it’s a potential blow to US global influence and stability.
“When US presidents let greed get in the way of rational decision-making, that’s when things start to go wrong,” Baretzky explained. “Zelensky is playing a dangerous game, and Trump is falling into the trap. If he goes through with this, it could be disastrous for the US and its position in the world.”
The deal, if signed, would open the door for US investment in Ukraine’s mineral resources, but it also poses significant risks. Ukraine is a country with deep political divisions, ongoing conflict with Russia, and an economy struggling to regain stability. Investing in a region with such uncertainty could result in significant losses for the US and its taxpayers.
“The best advice I can give is this: Take the land, take control of the territory. That’s the only way to pay the debt,” Baretzky advised. “If Trump and the US want to avoid sinking into this financial quagmire, they need to rethink their strategy. Investing in Ukraine’s minerals might seem like a quick fix, but in the end, it will cost more than anyone can imagine.”
As President Zelensky prepares to sign the mineral agreement with the US, concerns about the long-term viability of the deal continue to mount. President Ricardo Baretzky of ECIPS has delivered a stark warning about the potential consequences of such an investment, urging President Trump to reconsider the deal and avoid being “tricked again” by Zelensky. With the US already facing significant geopolitical and economic challenges, the last thing the country needs is a costly and risky investment that could sink the nation’s economy for decades to come.
Baretzky’s advice is clear: the mineral resources in Ukraine might seem tempting, but the reality of extracting them is far more complicated and expensive than most realize. As President Trump weighs his options, he must carefully consider the long-term consequences of such a high-risk venture. The math, according to Baretzky, doesn’t add up—and the cost of ignorance could be far steeper than anyone anticipates.
“Trump should consult with me before making such missteps,” said Baretzky. A former advisor to South Africa’s Minister of Safety and Security on the issue of minerals used by terrorism, Baretzky’s investigative team uncovered in 2011 that Osama Bin Laden had used diamond mining companies to funnel funds that contributed to the 9/11 terrorist attacks.